What prediction markets did today
Today's most notable move: "Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Spain?" closes in 6h with $761,284 of 24h volume and price at 2%. Beyond the immediate number, the shape of this story matters more than its surface. Watch how neighbouring markets reprice in the next session.
Prediction markets often tell the story before the headlines do.
Analysis of the Day
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Resolves in 6 days · $207K lifetime volume | NO 16% |
The market puts this at 16%, resolving in 6 days, treating the YES side as a clear underdog. $70K has traded in the last 24 hours, and the price is up 23pp over that window. This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals. Taking NO agrees with the crowd.
Trade Spotlight
$2K
made by one Polymarket trader before the market resolved
“Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-07-05?”
What to Watch
SportsWill United States win on 2026-07-06?
USA tops Group D but faces Belgium's elite offense and defensive discipline. The team sheet arrives hours before kickoff.
SportsWill Portugal win on 2026-07-06?
Spain has won every knockout match; Portugal drew twice in group play. Starting lineups determine if Spain's attack runs unchecked.
MentionsWill Trump say "Who are you with / Where are you from" before Jul 6, 2026?
The question hinges on Trump's exact phrasing in unscripted remarks. Any public statement or interview tonight settles it.
Four Corners
Politics Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027? 9%Before Jan 4, 2027 — flat 24h · $197K traded · Kalshi | Sports Will Norway win the 2026 Men's World Cup? 5%Norway — flat 24h · $6.6M traded · Kalshi |
Crypto Bitcoin price on Jul 6, 2026? 24%$63,500 or above — flat 24h · $105K traded · Kalshi | Tech Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027? 8%Before 2027 ▲ +2pp 24h · $77K traded · Kalshi |
Resolved Yesterday
Brazil vs Norway Winner? Crowd had Reg Time: Norway at 24% | Brazil |
Will Zizou Bergs win the Bergs vs Fery: Round Of 32 match? Crowd had Zizou Bergs at 72% | NO |
Tampa Bay vs Houston Winner? Crowd had Tampa Bay at 92% | Houston |
Don't wait for tomorrow's edition.
Everything prediction market traders need, in one place.
Try Kelvon for freeYou're reading Pythia, the daily prediction market brief powered by Kelvon.
Data across Polymarket & Kalshi, as of the morning send.
Unsubscribe
Data across Polymarket & Kalshi, as of the morning send.
Unsubscribe
Prices and probabilities move constantly and reflect the market at send time. Not investment advice. Prediction markets carry risk; trade only what you can afford to lose. Availability varies by jurisdiction.