Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 26
"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 26?" moved -28pp to 24% on $66,030 of 24h volume — Bloomberg/news linkage: "Supply absorption ‘key question’ as Bitcoin fails to reclaim $80K: Analysis"
Analysis of the Day
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? Resolves in 1 month · $1.0M lifetime volume | YES 75% |
Trump publicly stated on August 19 that no talks are taking place, which is a direct signal from the US side that diplomatic engagement has stalled, this strongly supports the YES (no qualifying meeting) outcome. The market resolves YES if no qualifying US-Iran diplomatic meeting occurs by September 30, meaning roughly five weeks remain for talks to resume; with the US president himself denying ongoing talks, the bar to flip this to NO (a meeting does occur) is high. The holder distribution is heavily skewed toward YES ($86K vs $14K), reflecting broad conviction that the diplomatic track is currently frozen.
Trade Spotlight
$6K
won by one Polymarket trader on a single call
Bought YES at 2¢ · ~49x return
“Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?”
What to Watch
SportsWill Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-26?
Real Madrid sits atop the League Phase with a plus-9 goal differential and unbeaten record. The final whistle this afternoon determines if that form holds against today's opponent.
CultureWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?
Musk's posting cadence will be tallied by close of business today. The threshold sits at 40 tweets over three days; current trajectory suggests he falls short.
CryptoBitcoin price on Aug 26, 2026?
Bitcoin trades just shy of the strike at $78,416. The close this afternoon locks in the final price; any rally above $79,000 settles the contract Yes.
In the News
COINTELEGRAPH · 1H AGO
Supply absorption ‘key question’ as Bitcoin fails to reclaim $80K: Analysis
Cointelegraph frames supply absorption as the open question after Bitcoin fails to reclaim $80,000, with spot at $78,551 and every investor cohort back in net profit territory. The market on Bitcoin above $80,000 on August 26 collapses 28pp to 24% Yes as the deadline closes in. With hours left and price 1.8% below the line, the crowd is treating the reclaim as unlikely.
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 26? |
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DECRYPT · 1D AGO
Zcash Hits Eight-Year High as Futures Bets Nearly Double
Decrypt reports ZEC broke above $880 to an eight-year high as perp open interest climbed to $1.8 billion. The Zcash-to-$900-by-year-end market nonetheless drops 30pp to 66% Yes. The crowd reads doubled futures positioning less as fuel for the final leg and more as crowded exposure vulnerable to a squeeze.
| Will Zcash reach $900 by December 31, 2026? |
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NYTIMES WORLD · 1H AGO
Iran and Oman Report Progress in Talks on Strait of Hormuz
The NYT reports Iran and Oman have agreed to open a temporary shipping lane and begin clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, with oil prices dipping on the announcement. The market on Hormuz traffic returning to normal by September 30 ticks up just 3pp to 10% Yes. Traders read the joint statement as a start, not a fix inside five weeks.
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
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Four Corners
Politics Will Republicans win the House in 2026? 14%Republican Party — flat 24h · $559K traded · Kalshi | Sports Sri Lanka vs India match: India wins 57%India — flat 24h · $629K traded · Kalshi |
Crypto Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? 28%Yes — flat 24h · $244K traded · Polymarket | Tech Does Ox Alpha belong to Zhipu AI (Z.ai)? 92%Yes ▲ +6pp 24h · $107K traded · Polymarket |
Resolved Yesterday
Cleveland wins Crowd had Cleveland at 28% | YES |
Luciano Darderi wins Crowd had Luciano Darderi at 26% | YES |
Al-Ittifaq vs Al Nassr Winner? Crowd had Al Nassr at 22% | Al Nassr |
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Data across Polymarket & Kalshi, as of the morning send.
Data across Polymarket & Kalshi, as of the morning send.
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