The USA is a heavy favorite today

The USA is a heavy favorite today and Bosnia already broke its price once

Kalshi has Bosnia and Herzegovina at 16% to advance past the USA in today's Round of 32 knockout, with $884K of overnight money and $1.4M lifetime on the question. That's not a sleepy market. That's a crowd committed to one side.

The résumé backs the price. Bosnia stumbled into the knockouts on a 1-1-3 tournament run: one win over Qatar, a draw with Canada, and a 1-4 loss to Switzerland. Read the recent form cold and the Americans should walk.

Except Bosnia has already outrun its own number once. They were priced as also-rans coming in and they're still playing. A 16% chance isn't nothing, it's roughly one-in-six, and knockout football compresses everything into ninety minutes where the better team on paper loses all the time. The crowd knows this, which is why the price hasn't drifted to single digits despite the form gap.

Kickoff is today. If Bosnia scores first, watch how fast that 16% moves, because the money says almost nobody in this market is prepared for it.

Analysis of the Day

Will Mariano Navone win the Navone vs Cobolli: Round Of 128 match?

Resolves in 2 weeks · $1.0M lifetime volume

10%

Market sits at 10%, in 2 weeks to resolution. Side: NO.

Trade Spotlight

$34K

won by one Polymarket trader on a single call

Bought NO at 50¢

“Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”

What to Watch

GamingLoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner

T1 advances to Worlds if they win; Liquid's season ends with a loss. The match starts this morning with both teams at full strength.

SportsWill DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?

England leads Group L and faces eliminated DR Congo in a dead-rubber fixture. Lineup rotations and tactical adjustments will determine the final scoreline.

TechWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Anthropic's service restoration status resolves the outage that triggered the market. Watch for official restoration announcements or service-status updates this afternoon.

In the News

BLOOMBERG · YESTERDAY

Growing Oil Glut Spurs Asian Refiners to Offer Cargoes to the US

Bloomberg reports Persian Gulf output is ramping so fast post-Hormuz reopening that already-supplied Asian refiners are shipping surplus crude as far as California. The Hormuz-normalization-by-July-31 market drops 7pp to 30% on Polymarket. The crowd reads a glut driven by resumed Gulf flow as evidence traffic isn't quite 'normal' yet, even as tankers move freely.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

30%

▼ -7pp 24h

NYT POLITICS · THIS MORNING

4 Warning Signs for Graham Platner. And 4 for Susan Collins Too.

The NYT/Siena poll finds the Maine Senate race between Graham Platner and Susan Collins extremely tight, with warning signs on both sides. The Democratic Maine Senate market slips 4pp to 56% for Platner. Traders trim their lean on the challenger as the poll reframes a race the market had been treating as modestly Democratic.

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine?

56%

▼ -4pp 24h

THEBLOCK · YESTERDAY

Benchmark sees over 500% upside in Strategy, reiterates $570 target on new capital framework

Benchmark reiterates its Buy and $570 price target on Strategy, citing a new two-way capital management framework it says implies over 500% upside. The STRC-to-$100-by-September-30 market ticks up 2pp to 28%. A sell-side note on the parent doesn't do much for a specific preferred-price threshold, which is what the muted reaction shows.

Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?

28%

▲ +2pp 24h

Four Corners

Politics

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

28%Yes

▼ -12pp 24h · $369K traded · Polymarket

Sports

Will France win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

34%France

— flat 24h · $3.5M traded · Kalshi

Crypto

Bitcoin price on Jul 3, 2026?

46%$59,000 or above

▼ -7pp 24h · $105K traded · Kalshi

Tech

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

90%Yes

— flat 24h · $114K traded · Polymarket

Resolved Yesterday

Germany vs Paraguay: To Advance

Crowd had Germany advances at 78%

Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?

Crowd had Germany at 72%

Germany vs Paraguay Winner?

Crowd had Reg Time: Germany at 72%

Paraguay

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The USA is a heavy favorite today