What prediction markets did today
Today's most notable move: "Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?" trades at 66% on Polymarket vs 32% on Kalshi — 34pp spread Beyond the immediate number, the shape of this story matters more than its surface. Watch how neighbouring markets reprice in the next session.
Prediction markets often tell the story before the headlines do.
Analysis of the Day
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? Resolves in 1 week · $380K lifetime volume | NO 92% |
Count Binface (John Freeston) is a perennial novelty candidate who typically finishes near the bottom of vote tallies in UK elections, his highest-profile results have been single-digit percentages in London mayoral races, and in a constituency by-election the field will include serious party candidates (Labour, Conservative, Reform successor, Lib Dem, Green) all competing for second place behind whoever leads.
Trade Spotlight
$3K
made by one Polymarket trader before the market resolved
“Will BN win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?”
What to Watch
Ent.Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score?
Critics' consensus on the new Spider-Man film determines whether Sony's reboot lands as prestige or standard superhero fare. The review embargo lifts this morning.
MentionsWill Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" before Aug 3, 2026?
Trump's rhetoric on Middle East peace shapes market perception of his foreign policy messaging heading into the final stretch before the election. His public remarks today lock in resolution.
CultureWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
Musk's posting frequency over the next three days reveals whether his X engagement remains high-volume or tapers during summer travel. His tweet count this afternoon becomes decisive.
Four Corners
Politics Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027? 7%Before Jan 4, 2027 — flat 24h · $176K traded · Kalshi | Sports Will Aleksandar Kovacevic win the Kovacevic vs Borges: Round Of 128 match? 24%Aleksandar Kovacevic — flat 24h · $1.2M traded · Kalshi |
Crypto Bitcoin price on Aug 7, 2026? 68%$62,000 or above — flat 24h · $55K traded · Kalshi | Tech Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027? 7%Before 2027 ▲ +2pp 24h · $36K traded · Kalshi |
Resolved Yesterday
Las Vegas vs Chicago women's Pro Basketball game: Las Vegas wins? Crowd had Las Vegas at 70% | NO |
Will Aoi Ito win the Selekhmeteva vs Ito: Qualification Round 1 match? Crowd had Aoi Ito at 28% | YES |
Boston vs Los Angeles D Winner? Crowd had Los Angeles D at 60% | Boston |
Will Donald Trump leave office before August 1, 2026? Crowd had Before August 1, 2026 at 50% | NO |
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Data across Polymarket & Kalshi, as of the morning send.
Data across Polymarket & Kalshi, as of the morning send.
Prices and probabilities move constantly and reflect the market at send time. Not investment advice. Prediction markets carry risk; trade only what you can afford to lose. Availability varies by jurisdiction.