What prediction markets did today
Today's most notable move: "Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?" moved +56pp to 75% on $42,890 of 24h volume Beyond the immediate number, the shape of this story matters more than its surface. Watch how neighbouring markets reprice in the next session.
Prediction markets often tell the story before the headlines do.
Analysis of the Day
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026? Resolves in 1 week · $161K lifetime volume | NO 96% |
Anthropic has not publicly announced or released a new Claude Opus model as of today, July 23, with only 8 days remaining until the July 31 deadline; the market has sharply dropped over both the past 24 hours and 7 days, signaling that informed participants see a release as increasingly unlikely in this window. No credible news or Anthropic announcement of an imminent Opus launch appears in the available data, and major model releases of this tier typically come with advance notice that is absent here. With under two weeks to resolution and no concrete signal of an imminent launch, the probability of a YES resolution is low.
Trade Spotlight
$3K
made by one Polymarket trader before the market resolved
“Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-07-22?”
What to Watch
GamingCounter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FOKUS (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier
Aurora Gaming advances to the next stage with a win in this best-of-three qualifier. The opening map result will set the tone for the entire series this afternoon.
CryptoBitcoin price on Jul 23, 2026?
Bitcoin's closing price today locks in the July 2026 settlement. Current volatility around $65.5K makes the final hours before resolution crucial.
SportsWill any Source Agency announce that LeBron James is joining any NBA team after Issuance and before Jul 24, 2026
A trade announcement reshapes the offseason landscape and LeBron's final chapter. Any agency statement before midnight triggers resolution.
Four Corners
Politics Who will win the governorship in California? 5%Steve Hilton — flat 24h · $136K traded · Kalshi | Sports What will be LeBron James's next team? 46%Miami — flat 24h · $3.2M traded · Kalshi |
Crypto Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? 38%Yes ▼ -2pp 24h · $125K traded · Polymarket | Tech Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? 88%Yes ▲ +12pp 24h · $107K traded · Polymarket |
Resolved Yesterday
San Diego vs Atlanta Winner? Crowd had Atlanta at 72% | San Diego |
Toluca vs Pumas UNAM Winner? Crowd had Pumas UNAM at 6% | Pumas UNAM |
Will Sinja Kraus win the Charaeva vs Kraus: Round Of 16 match? Crowd had Sinja Kraus at 92% | NO |
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Data across Polymarket & Kalshi, as of the morning send.
Data across Polymarket & Kalshi, as of the morning send.
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