Polymarket is pricing Elon Musk's tweet count

Polymarket is pricing Elon Musk's tweet count to the exact post

A week ago, the market on Elon Musk posting 180 to 199 tweets between June 26 and today was a coin-flippy tail bet. This morning it's at 86%, up +60pp, with the neighboring 200-219 bucket collapsing the other direction.

The path is what's remarkable. Early in the week, the crowd spread its bets across three or four buckets because a week of Elon posting is genuinely hard to forecast. As the days ticked down, probability drained from the higher buckets into this one, tweet by tweet, hour by hour.

This is Polymarket doing something odd and specific: it has built a real-time Elon-behavior index. The market isn't pricing news or policy. It's pricing whether one guy's thumbs land inside a twenty-post window before noon today. $165K has changed hands in the last day alone narrowing that window.

The question resolves at noon ET. Between now and then, every post shifts the bucket odds in real time. Watch the 180-199 line against the 200-219 line as the counter climbs.

Analysis of the Day

Mexico vs England Winner?

Resolves in 2 weeks · $1.4M lifetime volume

YES

32%

The market puts this at 32%, resolving in 2 weeks, treating the YES side as a clear underdog. $360K has traded in the last 24 hours, and the price is flat over that window. Latest signal: espn: Tuchel: England can't adapt to Azteca altitude. Taking YES bets against that consensus.

What to Watch

SportsWill Argentina win on 2026-07-03?

Argentina has won all three group matches with 8 goals scored and 1 conceded; Cape Verde has drawn three straight and sits fourth in their group. Final lineup confirmation arrives in the hours before kickoff.

SportsWill Egypt win on 2026-07-03?

Egypt stands at 5 points, one ahead of Australia in their group; both teams need a result to secure advancement. Australia's defensive vulnerability against Egypt's balanced attack will determine the outcome this afternoon.

CryptoBitcoin price on Jul 3, 2026?

Bitcoin trades at $62,057, already above the $61,500 threshold with minimal time left to move the settlement price. The close this afternoon locks in the final resolution.

In the News

BLOOMBERG · YESTERDAY

Gold Holds Gain After Warsh Remarks Ease Fed Rate-Hike Prospects

Bloomberg reports gold held its rebound after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech tamped down speculation of a rate hike this year. The Fed rate hike by July 2026 market falls 12pp to 9% Yes on the dovish read. The crowd took Warsh at his word and pulled hike odds toward single digits.

Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

▼ -12pp 24h

HOLLYWOOD REPORTER · 1D AGO

Taylor Swift’s Super Top-Secret Wedding Is Getting Kinda Ridiculous

Hollywood Reporter published 1d ago. The linked market on "Where will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s Wedding occur?" rose 2pp to 70% New York.

Where will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s Wedding occur?

70%

▲ +2pp 24h

THEHILL · 1D AGO

Collins leading Platner by 3 points in Fox News poll

Thehill published 1d ago. The linked market on "Will Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?" rose 1pp to 35% Republicans.

Will Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

35%

▲ +1pp 24h

Four Corners

Politics

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

8%Yes

▼ -2pp 24h · $409K traded · Polymarket

Sports

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

6%Portugal

— flat 24h · $5.2M traded · Polymarket

Crypto

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 3?

32%Yes

▲ +16pp 24h · $93K traded · Polymarket

Tech

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

82%Yes

▼ -6pp 24h · $190K traded · Polymarket

Resolved Yesterday

Belgium vs Senegal: To Advance

Crowd had Belgium advances at 12%

YES

Will the final score be Portugal wins 2-1?

Crowd had Reg Time: Portugal wins 2-1 at 14%

YES

Chicago WS vs Cleveland Winner?

Crowd had Chicago WS at 88%

Cleveland

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Polymarket is pricing Elon Musk's tweet count