Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026
"Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?" resolves in Noneh. The market sits at 87% with $81,980 of volume in the last day going into the close.
Analysis of the Day
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 26? Resolves tomorrow · $3K lifetime volume | NO 29% |
The August 26 forecast for Amsterdam shows a high of 27.2°C, which sits above the 26°C threshold, and with a ±2°F (~±1.1°C) confidence band at one-day lead, the range spans roughly 26.1°C to 28.3°C, keeping the central estimate comfortably above 26°C. The market resolves on the temperature range containing the NOAA-recorded high, so the question is whether the actual reading lands in the 26°C bucket (likely 26.0, 26.9°C) versus a higher bucket; at 27.2°C forecast, the most probable outcome is a reading in the 27°C range, not 26°C. A meaningful downside scenario where cooling pulls the high into the 26°C band exists but is not the central case given the forecast trajectory.
Trade Spotlight
$10K
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“Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?”
What to Watch
CultureWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
Musk's posting cadence directly signals his engagement level and platform strategy during a volatile news cycle. The tweet count finalizes in hours, locking in either baseline activity or a surge.
CryptoWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 25?
Bitcoin needs to hold above $82,000 to validate the recent rally momentum traders have been pricing in. The final afternoon close settles whether this breakout sticks or reverses.
CryptoBitcoin price on Aug 25, 2026?
A decisive close above $80,000 confirms the crypto recovery narrative that just broke through resistance. The closing price this afternoon determines whether the momentum holds or falters.
In the News
COINDESK · YESTERDAY
Bitcoin steadies near $78,000 as gold rallies, altcoins consolidate after best week in 3 years
CoinDesk reports Bitcoin holding near $78,000 as gold rallies and altcoins consolidate after their best week in three years. The Polymarket contract on Bitcoin closing above $78,000 on August 26 jumps +30pp to 88% Yes, with roughly a day left on the clock. The crowd reads the steady tape as good enough, given how little runway remains for a downside break.
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 26? |
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NYT POLITICS · YESTERDAY
With Trump Against Him, Can Ralph Norman Win in South Carolina?
The New York Times profiles Ralph Norman's uphill fight in the South Carolina Republican Senate special, framing his break with Trump on spending as a liability voters may or may not forgive. Norman's share of the primary market slides -14pp to 36% on the piece. Traders take the NYT framing at face value: crossing Trump costs you points, even when the reporter is asking whether it should.
| Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? |
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THEHILL · 2H AGO
Graham hopes Trump propels her across finish line in South Carolina
The Hill writes up Darline Graham's South Carolina Senate runoff as a test of Trump's endorsement power, with the president throwing his full weight behind the newcomer sister of the late Lindsey Graham. The market on Graham winning the Republican nomination eases -4pp to 66% Yes. The crowd already had her as the favorite, and a Trump-hopes-it-works framing does not move the needle much.
| Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? |
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Four Corners
Politics Will Republicans win the House in 2026? 16%Republican Party — flat 24h · $533K traded · Kalshi | Sports Kai-i Wang wins 78%Kai-i Wang — flat 24h · $1.5M traded · Kalshi |
Crypto Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? 28%Yes ▲ +1pp 24h · $1.3M traded · Polymarket | Tech Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027? 6%Before 2027 ▲ +2pp 24h · $27K traded · Kalshi |
Resolved Yesterday
Will Wyndham Clark win the BMW Championship? Crowd had Wyndham Clark at 2% | YES |
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August? Crowd had this at 1% YES | YES |
San Diego wins Crowd had San Diego at 56% | NO |
Fulham vs Chelsea Winner? Crowd had Chelsea at 50% | Chelsea |
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Data across Polymarket & Kalshi, as of the morning send.
Data across Polymarket & Kalshi, as of the morning send.
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