Tuesday, November 10, 2026 |
PYTHIA
Daily Prediction Market Newsletter
Waller endorses a December hike and the market stops pretending it's uncertain
"Fed's Waller Supports Rate Hike in December" hit Bloomberg before the open. Inside a few hours, the Polymarket contract on a December hike jumped from 76% to 86%, with nearly $902,231 of fresh volume changing hands. A parallel Kalshi market ran to 88%.
The October meeting ended with a hold and one dissent for a quarter-point hike. For two weeks the crowd read that dissent as a minority view and priced December as a coin flip plus a thumb. Then a sitting governor said the quiet part out loud, and the probability collapsed toward consensus in a morning.
What the market is really expressing isn't a view on Waller. It's a view on the chair. Traders are betting the chair follows a dissenting governor into back-to-back tightening rather than overruling him publicly in December. That's an institutional read, not a macro one.
The December 8-9 FOMC statement resolves it. Watch the next inflation print before then: a soft number is the only thing left that could pull 86% back toward a coin flip.
Analysis of the Day
Orleans: Dalibor Svrcina vs Vitaliy Sachko Odds on Dalibor Svrcina · Resolves in 6 days · $195K lifetime volume | MARKET ODDS 30% |
Svrcina enters ranked ATP 119th against Sachko at 175th on indoor hard court in the Orleans Challenger Round of 32, a surface and ranking gap that nominally favors the Czech. Despite that, the YES side on Svrcina has collapsed sharply in the past day on heavy volume, implying fresh information from warmups, injury news or lineup chatter. Confirmation of a withdrawal, retirement or set score would resolve the move decisively.
What to Watch
CultureWill Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?
Cenat has sixty hours left to finish two massive games before tonight's deadline. Stream status and GTA IV progress will signal whether he's on pace.
CultureWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
The bet hinges on a narrow 20-tweet band during a week when Musk's posting varies wildly. His engagement patterns this afternoon will clarify the final count.
SportsCeltics vs. 76ers
Boston's defense just held Milwaukee to 97 points on the road; Philly's backcourt now faces the same intensity. Early quarter scoring will reveal which team controls the tempo tonight.
In the News
THE HILL · THIS MORNING
Hegseth plans press conference, says he’s ‘not worried’ about impeachment push
Hegseth says he is "not worried" about the impeachment articles Rep. Thomas Massie plans to reintroduce this week, and will hold a Pentagon press conference Tuesday, per The Hill. The Polymarket contract on Hegseth exiting Defense by December 31 fell 12pp to 34% Yes. Traders are reading the defiance, and Speaker Johnson's "terrible look" warning, as signs the votes aren't there.
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
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BLOOMBERG · 1H AGO
Fed's Waller Supports Rate Hike in December
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he backs a rate hike in December and would support a half-percentage-point increase if inflation accelerates further, per Bloomberg. Polymarket's December 25 bps hike market rose 10pp to 86% Yes on the remarks. A sitting governor pre-committing to the move leaves little daylight for the crowd to doubt it.
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? |
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COINTELEGRAPH · 1H AGO
Bitcoin price eyes $74K as Fed rate-hike bets hit 96% after Waller speech
Bitcoin and stock futures drifted lower after Waller said he would vote to raise rates 0.25% at the December FOMC, per Cointelegraph. Kalshi's December 25bp hike contract climbed 11pp to 88%. The rates market and the crypto tape are reading the same speech the same way.
| Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting? |
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Four Corners
Politics US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? 16%Yes ▼ -7pp 24h · $516K traded · Polymarket | Sports Will Jacksonville win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? 11%Jacksonville ▲ +2pp 24h · 1.1M contracts traded · Kalshi |
Crypto Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026? 28%Yes ▼ -2pp 24h · $69K traded · Polymarket | Tech Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? 14%Yes ▲ +3pp 24h · $364K traded · Polymarket |
Resolved Yesterday
Chicago wins by over 6.5 points? Crowd had Chicago wins by over 6.5 points at 72% | NO |
Alafia Ayeni wins Crowd had Alafia Ayeni at 4% | YES |
Full Game: over 52.5 points scored? Crowd had Over 52.5 points at 82% | NO |
You're reading Pythia, the daily prediction market brief.
Data across Polymarket & Kalshi, as of the morning send.
Data across Polymarket & Kalshi, as of the morning send.
Prices and probabilities move constantly and reflect the market at send time. Not investment advice. Prediction markets carry risk; trade only what you can afford to lose. Availability varies by jurisdiction.